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In Collaboration with Despot: Analysing the Impact of Sanctions on Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union
Chaloupka, David ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Teichman, Jiří (referee)
This bachelor's thesis is focused on investigating the Eurasian Economic Union, which was formed in 2015 to deepen economic integration in the post-Soviet region. The research aims to analyse the impact of sanctions on Russia and its partners within the Eurasian Economic Union to identify if Russia is circum- venting sanctions through these states before the war in Ukraine in 2022. For the analysis, I use gravity equations and trade fow data aggregated on product level. Based on the fndings, I reveal that the sanctions imposed on Russia have negatively impacted trade with partner states, with average reductions of over 27%. Additionally, on one hand, the Eurasian Economic Union experienced a trade creation and trade diversion efect, but on the other hand, the imposition of sanctions after 2014 resulted in negative impacts on trade between member states and with third states.
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A Gravity Approach to Modelling German Exports: The Role of Institutions
Hadrová, Petra ; Bobková, Božena (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to implement the gravity model approach to identify and quantify determinants of bilateral trade flows of Germany and its trading partners, while focusing on the effect of institutions. Based on various gravity model techniques (clustered pooled OLS, Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimation, Hausman and Taylor estimation and Instrumental Variables regression), we have confirmed that the quality of institutions have a signifiant and positive effect on German exports. Depending on model specification and estimation technique, some institutions seem to effect German export more than others. We see the Hausman and Taylor estimator advisable for addressing endogeneity of institutions.
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Euro and the Effect on Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Analysis
Gabaš, Ondřej ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Euro and the Effect on Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Analysis Ondřej Gabaš The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the impact of common Euro- pean currency on bilateral trade. Using data from 1993 to 2015, we employ structural Gravity model of trade on the sample of 19 European Monetary Union members and 25 developed countries. In our analysis, we use two different methods to account for the endogeneity, country-pair fixed-effects and Baier and Bergstrands (2009) specification of the Gravity model esti- mated by OLS. In order to examine the effect of missing observations, we employ Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood estimator. Last, we focus on the adoption of the Euro as a reason behind the effect of trade diversion. The results of all three models show that the creation of the EMU had sta- tistically insignificant effect limiting to zero. In the case of fixed-effects and OLS, the estimated effect is negative, while in the case of the PPML, we found a positive impact. In addition, the results of our analysis show that the adoption of the Euro did not cause a trade diversion. 1
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The Elasticity of Trade with Respect to Trade Costs: A Meta-Analysis
Tlustá, Anna ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to present a meta-analysis of studies that are focused on the relation between the international trade flow and the trade costs. The effect of trade costshasbecomeoneofthekeyelementstoresolvethesixmajor puzzles in the bilateral trade flow. I examine 1,090 estimates of the trade cost effect reported in 58 studies, codify 51 aspects of study design that may influencetheestimates.Iuse meta-regression analysis to investigate why trade costs effects vary. The results suggest that different methods and mainly data characteristics systematically affect the estimated trade costs effects. I find evidence for publication selection bias by using the appropriate tests. The authors of primary studies tend to report preferentially large estimates of the elasticity of trade with respect to trade costs. The evidence for publication selection bias is stronger for studies reported in peer-reviewed journals thanfor unpublished studies.
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A Gravity Approach to Modelling German Exports: The Role of Institutions
Hadrová, Petra ; Bobková, Božena (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to implement the gravity model approach to identify and quantify determinants of bilateral trade flows of Germany and its trading partners, while focusing on the effect of institutions. Based on various gravity model techniques (clustered pooled OLS, Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimation, Hausman and Taylor estimation and Instrumental Variables regression), we have confirmed that the quality of institutions have a signifiant and positive effect on German exports. Depending on model specification and estimation technique, some institutions seem to effect German export more than others. We see the Hausman and Taylor estimator advisable for addressing endogeneity of institutions.
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Model of EU international trade - assigning countries into subgroups in panel data
Tichý, Filip ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
I model foreign trade among European countries by applying gravity equation model on panel data. The aim is to investigate exchange rate volatility impact on foreign trade and to test for the presence of the so-called Rose effect in relation to the Euro currency area. I develop a novel complex approach to the estimation of the gravity equation when the assumption of homogeneous reaction within the group of studied countries is relaxed. New methodology, tests and implementation is proposed. I develop several heuristic methods that permit effective clustering of countries in a selection of subgroups. The clustering process is iterative: in each step, countries are redistributed in new subgroups and the process is terminated, when no subsequent superior redistribution is possible. Finally, the effective selection of subgroups of countries is chosen to minimize an appropriately defined objective function. Results of the proposed heuristic tests suggest that no dominant method exists. Therefore, an algorithm of chaining of alternative heuristic methods is proposed. After the solution is achieved with one method, an alternative method is imposed and the search for the optimal solution continues, until the objective function reaches its minimum. The proposed methodology is applied to estimate the gravity equation of foreign trade with the extension that permits to assign countries into optimally selected subgroups using the newly introduced algorithms.
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Analysis of export promotion provided by Czech Export Bank
Potácelová, Věra ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Tuček, Miroslav (referee)
Export promotion via officially supported export credits and insurance is relatively widespread around the world. The thesis describes activity of Czech Export Bank (CEB) and mentions also its legal framework in Czech system of export promotion. Text contains pros and cons of export promotion. The main part of the thesis is panel data analysis using gravity equation. This panel data involves 130 countries in period of 1996 -- 2008 with data on export, export promotion, GDP, political risk and other variables. There is investigated impact of activities of CEB on Czech export using 2 gravity models (static and dynamic). In these models export promotion is significant factor with positive impact on Czech export.
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